Predictions by Hodl Hodl Are Now Available on Mainnet

News and Analysis

Hodl Hodl, global non-custodial P2P Bitcoin exchange, has announced its new project Predictions by Hodl Hodl is finally available on mainnet.

As per the blog post earlier this week, this project allows users to predict the outcomes of any events in the world and earn Bitcoins from other users in case their predictions were right.

“Predictions by Hodl Hodl is a marketplace where you can go and create the prediction, and conduct a contract with any user that accepts your offer, where the conditions of the payout depend on the outcome of a certain event,” reads the announcement.

To make all this possible, Hodl Hodl offer the following solutions:

An offer desk – a place where you can find other users’ predictions, and create your own;

Escrow – for each contract, two multisig addresses are generated, where the funds are being stored safely during the prediction contract, with two out of three keys needed for release — and when the event happens, the user that predicted the outcome correctly receives all the funds;

Dispute resolution – in case of a disagreement between the two parties on the prediction contract’s outcome, Hodl Hodl intervenes and resolves the dispute.

Use cases

Some examples of use cases from existing predictions include:

Stock prices – you can buy public company shares, and try predicting the price of that stock. Choose any public company, e.g. Google, and predict the price of its shares by, for example, the end of 2019.

Oil price – If you’re long on renewable energy, you would probably expect the price of oil to fall at some point — predict when exactly.

Payouts to Mt. Gox creditors – if you’re a Mt. Gox creditor and awaiting the payout, you might be interested in creating a contract that says “creditors of Mt. Gox will not be paid anything in 2019” even though your expectation is that they will be. Thus, if you get paid by Mt. Gox, you receive bitcoins from them, but lose the ones you locked in your contract. If you don’t get paid by Mt. Gox, you’d get some of the bitcoins that will be sort of a compensation for a longer wait period.

Peter McCormack vs Craig Wright – if you follow these kinds of events and want to support either side, make a prediction of who wins the trial, or whether it goes to trial at all.

It is worth noting that Predictions by Hodl Hodl support native Bech32 SegWit addresses. This means users can send and receive the funds from escrow to Bech32 addresses when the contract is completed. Additionally, P2SH-P2WSH SegWit multisig escrow addresses are created, with each contract being assigned a unique SegWit-address.

2 out of 3 multisig contracts were enabled by Hodl Hodl exchange in November 2018.

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